The value of global music sales via the internet is set to top $6 billion in 2010, according to a new report by Informa Media Group. The report, Music on the Internet (5th edition), estimates that the share of music sales online will rise from 4.6% in 2004 to 15.2% in 2010. The dominance of hard format sales through the internet will finally be broken, although the steady rise of download and subscription revenues will not impact on retail as quickly as some have suggested. Global digital revenues are forecast to exceed $3.1 billion in 2010, equivalent to 7.7% of total music sales.

Successful launches in most major territories have generated great interest, in particular the ongoing success of the global download leader Apple and its iTunes Music Store. While the continued proliferation of P2P makes the prospect of legal downloading reaching its true potential unlikely, the successes of 2004 are even more impressive given that every music release is available for free somewhere on the internet.

Author of the report Simon Dyson said: “This year has been important for the whole of the digital music sector and the momentum created in 2003 has certainly continued all through 2004. Converting the P2P file sharers is still central to the long-term success of the industry. Many millions of music fans still prefer to download for free even though the legal services offer such good value.”

Much of the focus with regards to music on the internet during 2004 has centred on the growth of downloads and the numerous launches or services providing a legitimate alternative to P2P file sharing. While this is unquestionably good news for the music industry, illegal file sharing continues to thrive and efforts to limit its spread have so far all but failed. Music on the Internet (5th edition) estimates the value of lost sales to the music industry in 2004 remained almost unchanged at $2.1 billion.

Music on the Internet (5th edition) is published by Informa Media Group, which also publishes the influential Music & Copyright newsletter. The report contains forecasts for online music sales up to and including 2010 as well as a detailed analysis of the different online music players and sectors.